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    Soccer> Community> semotipster>

    Dumbarton VS East Kilbride

    Scottish Division Two
    Analysis
    Dumbarton
    Dumbarton 2
    0 East Kilbride
    East Kilbride
    Further Reading
    • Rinoandi
      Rinoandi Won 8/11
      Heres the same style summary for Dumbarton v East Kilbride, focused only on 3+ goals and handicap 1 Over 3.0 goals (Asian 3+ line) From the raw scores: Dumbarton home: 7 games 9 scored, 13 conceded = 22 goals (3.14 per game) East Kilbride away: 7 games 15 scored, 12 conceded = 27 goals (3.86 per game) Combined: 49 goals in 14 games 3.50 goals/game Using a Poisson model with: λ_home 1.48 λ_away 1.99 Total λ 3.47 I get for the Asian Over 3.0 line: Win (4+ goals): ~46% Push (exactly 3 goals): ~22% Lose (02 goals): ~32% So the fair line is slightly above 3.0 (closer to 3.25), which means: At Over 3.0, the edge is on the Over, not on the Under. Id personally play Over 3.0 goals, as long as the price isnt crushed (Id want roughly 1.851.90 on Over 3.0 to be happy).
      O/U
      SCO L2 Dumbarton 2-0 East Kilbride
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