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    Soccer> Community> Rinoandi>

    Peterhead VS Kelty Hearts

    Scottish Division One
    Analysis
    Peterhead
    Peterhead 3
    2 Kelty Hearts
    Kelty Hearts
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    • 1) Build the two teams home/away xG profiles From your lists: Kazincbarcikai (HOME games) Avg xG for (home attack) = 1.22 Avg xG against (home defence) = 1.52 Paksi (AWAY games) Avg xG for (away attack) = 1.05 Avg xG against (away defence) = 1.56 2) Convert those into expected goals for this match I combine attack vs defence with a geometric mean (standard approach): λ_home = (Kaz home xG_for × Paksi away xG_against) = (1.22 × 1.56) = 1.38 λ_away = (Paksi away xG_for × Kaz home xG_against) = (1.05 × 1.52) = 1.26 So the match is basically 1.38 1.26 (very close). 3) Turn λ into Win/Draw/Lose (Poisson) From Poisson on (1.38, 1.26): Kaz win: 39.74% Draw: 26.10% Paksi win: 34.16% This is the key for handicap. 4) What each handicap line means in W / Push / L AH 0 (PK / DNB) on Kaz Win: 39.74% (Kaz win) Push: 26.10% (draw) Lose: 34.16% (Kaz lose) So PK is very close to balanced, with Kaz a small favourite. Break-even (fair) odds for Kaz 0: = 1 + Lose/Win = 1 + 0.3416/0.3974 = 1.86
      AH
      HUN D1 Kazincbarcika - Paksi SE Honlapja
    • For Petrolul vs U Cluj we had λ_total = 2.65 (1.24 + 1.41). Correct O/U line (50/50) O/U 2.5 is the fair total Over 2.5: 49.4% Under 2.5: 50.6% Strict O/U 3.0 (3+) Over 3.0: win 27.5% / push 21.9% / full-loss 50.6% Under 3.0: win 50.6% / push 21.9% / full-loss 27.5% So total goals 𝑇 T is modeled as Poisson(2.65). Asian Total Over 2.0 what it means WIN if T 3 PUSH if T = 2 FULL LOSS if T 1 (0 or 1 goal) Probabilities (from Poisson with μ = 2.65) P(0) = 7.1% P(1) = 18.7% P(2) = 24.8% P(3+) = 49.4% Therefore for Over 2.0 Win (3+): 49.4% Push (exactly 2): 24.8%. Full-loss (01): 25.8%. Fair price for Over 2.0 (break-even odds). So, Over 2.0 is value only if odds are > ~1.52 (before margin). P(0) = 7.1%. P(1) = 18.7%. P(2) = 24.8%. P(3+) = 49.4%.
      O/U
      ROM D1 Petrolul Ploiesti - Universitaea Cluj
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