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    Soccer> Community> Adijuntak888>

    Pacos de Ferreira VS Lusitania FC

    Liga Portugal 2
    Analysis
    Pacos de Ferreira
    Pacos de Ferreira 1
    5 Lusitania FC
    Lusitania FC
    Further Reading
    • Rinoandi
      Rinoandi Won 8/13
      Pacos Ferreira v Lusitania Lourosa 1. Goal expectation & 3+ line From the last 6: Pacos home: 11 scored / 7 conceded 3.0 total goals per game Lusitania away: 12 scored / 8 conceded 3.33 total goals per game Model (Poisson-style) gives roughly: λ Pacos 1.50 goals λ Lusitania 1.65 goals Expected total 3.13.2 goals 3+ goals (3 total): ~61% For the Asian Over 3.0 line: Win (4+ goals): 3839% Push (exactly 3): 22% Lose (02 goals): 39% So the fair main total line is 3.0 goals. Over 3.0 is basically 50/50 once you include the push; I would only like Over 3.0 if the price is clearly plus-EV (for example, noticeably above ~2.052.10). Pacos Ferreira v Lusitania Lourosa 1. Goal expectation & 3+ line From the last 6: Pacos home: 11 scored / 7 conceded 3.0 total goals per game Lusitania away: 12 scored / 8 conceded 3.33 total goals per game Model (Poisson-style) gives roughly: λ Pacos 1.50 goals λ Lusitania 1.65 goals Expected total 3.13.2 goals 3+ goals (3 total): ~61% For the Asian Over 3.0 li
      O/U
      POR D2 Pacos de Ferreira 1-5 Lusitania FC
      1
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