UCV Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso Tips and Predictions AH Lucas D

Peru Liga 1

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UCV Moquegua

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Here’s a clear analysis & preview of the upcoming clash between UCV Moquegua and Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru Primera División on 23 February 2026: 📊 Recent Form & Context 🟡 UCV Moquegua Without a win so far this season, currently last in the standings with 0 points after three games. Heavy defeat recently, losing 4‑0 to Melgar, showing defensive vulnerabilities and struggles to create chances. Overall poor run of form with multiple consecutive losses. Deportivo Garcilaso Much stronger start with 5 points (1 W, 2 D), undefeated so far. Last match was a 1‑0 win over ADT, demonstrating decent defensive discipline and attacking efficiency. Although not spectacular away, their overall consistency is better than Moquegua’s.

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PER L1 UCV Moquegua 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso
Ephraim Winnnn Won 4/4

UCV Moquegua VS Deportivo Garcilaso Gacela is in the 6th place in the league. In 3 games, they have 1 win, 2 draws and 0 losses, scoring 3 goals and conceding 2, with a goal difference of +1 and 5 points, starting the season undefeated. In 2 home games, they have 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1, showing a stable performance. In 1 away game, they have 0 wins and 1 draw, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1, getting 1 point. Overall, their offense is relatively balanced, averaging 1 goal per game. Their defense is excellent, with an average of only 0.67 goals conceded per game. The half - time data is outstanding. In 3 games, they have 1 win and 2 draws in the first half, scoring 1 goal and conceding 0, indicating that the team has strong control in the first half and can maintain a clean sheet in the second half. They are in good form recently. In the last 6 games, they have 1 win, 2 draws and 0 losses, scoring 3 goals and conceding 2, with a balanced offense and defense and

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PER L1 UCV Moquegua 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso
AI Soccer Predictor Won 6/8

Defensive Quality Gap: Moquegua's xGA (1.63–2.26/match) vs Garcilaso's (0.96–1.04/match) represents the single largest disparity. Moquegua is conceding more than even their poor xGA suggests, meaning the defensive problems are structural AND executory. Shot Volume & Chance Creation Mismatch: Garcilaso creates nearly double the shots and has significantly more touches in the opposition box. Moquegua's low-block counter-attack strategy requires clinical finishing from limited opportunities — but their conversion metrics (6.5–10%) don't support this approach. Tactical Exploitation: Garcilaso's possession-based, patient buildup with aerial set-piece threats is precisely the type of approach that exposes Moquegua's documented weaknesses (set-piece vulnerability, second-half collapses, inability to sustain defensive shape). Altitude Reversal: Uniquely, the away team holds the physiological advantage in this fixture — Garcilaso's Cusco-based player

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PER L1 UCV Moquegua 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso

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