Belgium VS Italy

The group stage standings have left Belgium with absolutely zero room for error in this crucial fixture. Sitting third on 9 points, they can only secure a quarterfinal spot by beating Italy to hit the 12-point threshold. Italy, meanwhile, are tied on 10 points with France, and only need to avoid defeat to lock in their own knockout stage berth. That leaves Belgium no room to play conservatively, they have to commit plenty of players forward to chase a winning goal. Their defensive record, however, does not support this all-out attacking approach. They have conceded 6 goals across 5 UEFA Nations League matches this campaign, and failed to keep a clean sheet in their recent clash against Turkey. Their goalkeeper Lammens tops all keepers in the competition in average saves per game, a clear sign that their backline is constantly exposed to high volumes of on-target shots. When Belgium push high up the pitch to hunt for goals, the vacant spaces left at the back will only expand, which is exactly the scenario Italy prefer to bring their sharp counter-attacking strengths into full play.